Wednesday, December 23, 2009
UK Housing Market Recovery Will Fade Next Year, RICS Says
The U.K. housing market recovery will fade in 2010 as more homes become available to buy and officials start to exit emergency stimulus measures, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said.
Prices will increase in a range of 1 percent to 2 percent after rising about 3.5 percent this year, RICS, based in London, said in a statement today. Average transactions may climb to 70,000 a month by the end of 2010 from a low of 26,700 in February this year, the forecasts show.
Bank of England policy maker Kate Barker said last week that house prices may stagnate in 2010 as unemployment climbs. Policy makers this month kept their bond-purchase plan at 200 billion pounds ($322 billion) as they assessed whether the U.K.’s longest recession on record has ended.
“You have a relatively fragile recovery and a background in which the government and central bank are thinking about exit strategies from their stimulus packages,” Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at RICS, said in an interview. “As these begin to take effect there will be more challenges for the housing market.”
The rally will fade as the end of central bank bond purchases next year lifts bond yields, which will in turn boost the swap rates used as a benchmark for mortgage costs, RICS said. The group predicts the central bank will start to raise its benchmark interest rate from the current record low of 0.5 percent next year.
The government’s removal of a temporary cut in sales tax in January, a levy on bank bonuses, an increase in the top rate of income tax to 50 percent and expected further fiscal measures to curb Britain’s record will also curb house-price gains, RICS said.
UK Property Gains to Stall in 2010, UKCIG Property News
The U.K. housing market recovery will peter out in 2010 as the supply of homes increases because of forced sales, Rightmove Plc said.
Average asking prices will stagnate next year after rising about 2 percent in 2009, the operator of the U.K.’s biggest property Web site said in a statement today. Prices fell 2.2 percent this month to an average of 221,463 pounds ($359,600), and may drop again next month, the group said.
Banks may show “less forbearance” to consumers who are late on mortgage payments after the general election, which Prime Minister Gordon Brown must call by June 2010, Rightmove said. A shortage of properties available helped stoke prices this year and erased some losses in values caused during the slump, which shaved as much as 12% off asking prices.
“2009 turned out to be a good time to trade up,” Miles Shipside, commercial director of Rightmove, said in the statement. “We forecast the positive mood will continue into 2010 until the post-election hang-over kicks in.”
The pound fell 0.1 percent against the dollar to $1.6229 as of 10:44 a.m. today in London. The yield on the two-year gilt was down 1 basis point at 1.2 percent.
Asking prices fell 5.8 percent from November in the North of England, making it the worst-performing of 10 regions tracked by Rightmove. East Anglia, where prices rose 0.5 percent on the month, was the only area to show a monthly increase. Rightmove measured asking prices from listings on its site from Nov. 8 to Dec. 5.
Average asking prices will stagnate next year after rising about 2 percent in 2009, the operator of the U.K.’s biggest property Web site said in a statement today. Prices fell 2.2 percent this month to an average of 221,463 pounds ($359,600), and may drop again next month, the group said.
Banks may show “less forbearance” to consumers who are late on mortgage payments after the general election, which Prime Minister Gordon Brown must call by June 2010, Rightmove said. A shortage of properties available helped stoke prices this year and erased some losses in values caused during the slump, which shaved as much as 12% off asking prices.
“2009 turned out to be a good time to trade up,” Miles Shipside, commercial director of Rightmove, said in the statement. “We forecast the positive mood will continue into 2010 until the post-election hang-over kicks in.”
The pound fell 0.1 percent against the dollar to $1.6229 as of 10:44 a.m. today in London. The yield on the two-year gilt was down 1 basis point at 1.2 percent.
Asking prices fell 5.8 percent from November in the North of England, making it the worst-performing of 10 regions tracked by Rightmove. East Anglia, where prices rose 0.5 percent on the month, was the only area to show a monthly increase. Rightmove measured asking prices from listings on its site from Nov. 8 to Dec. 5.
Friday, December 18, 2009
Are first-time buyers deserting the UK property market?
Figures released by the National Association of Estate Agents show there has been a significant reduction in the number of first-time buyers involved in the UK property market over the last six months. Just six months ago, 43% of all registered purchases were on behalf of those looking for their first home while last month this figure fell to just 19%. The figure of 19% matches the record low reached in December 2008 and has set alarm bells ringing within the sector.
One problem which may have assisted the sudden drop-off in first-time buyer numbers is the fact that the stamp duty exemption scheme is ending very soon. However, there is also a general knowledge within the marketplace that mortgage companies are withholding liquidity from the first-time buyer arena by increasing deposit requirements at a time when money is tight for many people.
Whether we will see a rebound in first-time buyer numbers in the first quarter of 2010 is debatable but we need to see first-time buyers join the party before any significant recovery in the property sector can occur. While 2009 has been one of the more difficult years in the history of the UKCIG property market there is still some confusion and concern about 2010 and whether we could see a short-term drop-off in property prices.
UKCIG Property News, December 2009
One problem which may have assisted the sudden drop-off in first-time buyer numbers is the fact that the stamp duty exemption scheme is ending very soon. However, there is also a general knowledge within the marketplace that mortgage companies are withholding liquidity from the first-time buyer arena by increasing deposit requirements at a time when money is tight for many people.
Whether we will see a rebound in first-time buyer numbers in the first quarter of 2010 is debatable but we need to see first-time buyers join the party before any significant recovery in the property sector can occur. While 2009 has been one of the more difficult years in the history of the UKCIG property market there is still some confusion and concern about 2010 and whether we could see a short-term drop-off in property prices.
UKCIG Property News, December 2009
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Google's UK property portal now live - UKCIG Property News
A couple of weeks back, Pocket-lint covered the rumours that Google was in talks with various estate agents to launch a property aggregator that covers the UK. Well, those rumours have proved correct, and you can now search for property on Google Maps. To access it, click the "more" link at the top of the map and select "Real Estate".
Just like the identical service that Google offers in Australia, the property aggregator allows you to pick rent or sale, set upper and lower price points, and choose the number of bedrooms and bathrooms that you'd like, before displaying the results of your search in a list on the left panel and on the main map.
It's not yet clear what effect this will have on existing aggregators like Rightmove and Globrix, but if reports are accurate that Google is offering the service free to Estate Agents, then it could prove catastrophic, especially if the company begins to actively promote the offering.
Update: Upon further investigation, it seems like the service is only live in London for the time being. We'll keep an eye on the rest of the country and let you know when it rolls out further.
UKCIG Property News, December 2009
Just like the identical service that Google offers in Australia, the property aggregator allows you to pick rent or sale, set upper and lower price points, and choose the number of bedrooms and bathrooms that you'd like, before displaying the results of your search in a list on the left panel and on the main map.
It's not yet clear what effect this will have on existing aggregators like Rightmove and Globrix, but if reports are accurate that Google is offering the service free to Estate Agents, then it could prove catastrophic, especially if the company begins to actively promote the offering.
Update: Upon further investigation, it seems like the service is only live in London for the time being. We'll keep an eye on the rest of the country and let you know when it rolls out further.
UKCIG Property News, December 2009
Sunday, December 13, 2009
UK commercial property values rise for 5th consecutive month
The latest figures from CB Richard Ellis’ Monthly Index have revealed Britain’s commercial property values have risen for the 5th month in a row.
In fact, the 2.7% increase for November is the highest monthly increase since records began 9 years ago. The consultants have said retail warehouses and shopping centres were behind the growth, which grew at 4% and 3.9% respectively. Commercial property values have been rising since July, when they slumped by 44% from the peak of the property bubble in summer 2007.
New research out this week also shows renewed interest in Central Office space London serviced officesLondon office space. Interest in London commercial property has now risen by a fifth on a month-to-month basis. Nearly 3.5 million square feet of office space were under offer by the end of November – nearly double the quantity at the beginning of 2009.
Experts predict that if the decrease in available space is sustainable, rents will begin to rise. Landlords will be able to charge more as the amount of free office space continues to dwindle. In the last few months, the London commercial property market has seen a surge in investor activity which is the latest sign the market could begin to stabilise in early 2010.
Despite this renewed confidence, some experts warn the commercial property market across the whole Office space UK serviced offices UK won’t return to growth for another year. They predict both uk capital investment and rental values will decline in the next 12 months.
UKCIG Property News, December 2009
In fact, the 2.7% increase for November is the highest monthly increase since records began 9 years ago. The consultants have said retail warehouses and shopping centres were behind the growth, which grew at 4% and 3.9% respectively. Commercial property values have been rising since July, when they slumped by 44% from the peak of the property bubble in summer 2007.
New research out this week also shows renewed interest in Central Office space London serviced officesLondon office space. Interest in London commercial property has now risen by a fifth on a month-to-month basis. Nearly 3.5 million square feet of office space were under offer by the end of November – nearly double the quantity at the beginning of 2009.
Experts predict that if the decrease in available space is sustainable, rents will begin to rise. Landlords will be able to charge more as the amount of free office space continues to dwindle. In the last few months, the London commercial property market has seen a surge in investor activity which is the latest sign the market could begin to stabilise in early 2010.
Despite this renewed confidence, some experts warn the commercial property market across the whole Office space UK serviced offices UK won’t return to growth for another year. They predict both uk capital investment and rental values will decline in the next 12 months.
UKCIG Property News, December 2009
U.K. House Price Recovery Will Stall in 2010, UKCIG News
The UK. housing market recovery will peter out in 2010 as the supply of homes increases because of forced sales, Rightmove Plc said.
Average asking prices will stagnate next year after rising about 2 percent in 2009, the operator of the U.K.’s biggest property Web site said in a statement today. Prices fell 2.2 percent this month to an average of 221,463 pounds ($361,405), and may drop again next month, the group said.
Banks may show “less forbearance” to consumers who are late on mortgage payments after the general election, which Prime Minister Gordon Brown must by June 2010, Rightmove said. A shortage of properties available helped stoke prices this year and erased some losses in values caused during the slump.
“2009 turned out to be a good time to trade up,” Miles Shipside, commercial director of Rightmove, said in the statement. “We forecast the positive mood will continue into 2010 until the post-election hang-over kicks in.”
Asking prices fell 5.8 percent from November in the North of England, making it the worst-performing of 10 regions tracked by Rightmove. East Anglia, where prices rose 0.5 percent on the month, was the only area to show a monthly increase. Rightmove measured asking prices from listings on its site from Nov. 8 to Dec. 5.
100,000-Pound Drop
Prices in London fell 1.2 percent, led by a 6.2 percent drop in Hounslow. The next-biggest drop was in Kensington and Chelsea, the capital’s most expensive district, where prices declined 5 percent, or almost 100,000 pounds in a month.
The average number of properties available for sale per real estate agent fell to 67, the lowest since February 2008, from 69 the previous month, Rightmove said.
The Council of Mortgage Lenders cut its forecast for U.K. mortgage repossessions this year after low interest rates helped Britons manage their payments. The CML last month forecast 48,000 repossessions, down from an earlier prediction of 75,000.
Repossessions may increase from the second half of 2010 because banks may become less patient with as many as 240,000 homeowners who have been late on mortgage payments and if interest rates increase, Rightmove said.
Record-low interest rates have made borrowing more affordable and helped more U.K. households meet debt payments, the Bank of England said today, citing a survey it conducted with NMG Financial Services Consulting from September to October.
UKCIG Property News from Rightmove, December 2009
Average asking prices will stagnate next year after rising about 2 percent in 2009, the operator of the U.K.’s biggest property Web site said in a statement today. Prices fell 2.2 percent this month to an average of 221,463 pounds ($361,405), and may drop again next month, the group said.
Banks may show “less forbearance” to consumers who are late on mortgage payments after the general election, which Prime Minister Gordon Brown must by June 2010, Rightmove said. A shortage of properties available helped stoke prices this year and erased some losses in values caused during the slump.
“2009 turned out to be a good time to trade up,” Miles Shipside, commercial director of Rightmove, said in the statement. “We forecast the positive mood will continue into 2010 until the post-election hang-over kicks in.”
Asking prices fell 5.8 percent from November in the North of England, making it the worst-performing of 10 regions tracked by Rightmove. East Anglia, where prices rose 0.5 percent on the month, was the only area to show a monthly increase. Rightmove measured asking prices from listings on its site from Nov. 8 to Dec. 5.
100,000-Pound Drop
Prices in London fell 1.2 percent, led by a 6.2 percent drop in Hounslow. The next-biggest drop was in Kensington and Chelsea, the capital’s most expensive district, where prices declined 5 percent, or almost 100,000 pounds in a month.
The average number of properties available for sale per real estate agent fell to 67, the lowest since February 2008, from 69 the previous month, Rightmove said.
The Council of Mortgage Lenders cut its forecast for U.K. mortgage repossessions this year after low interest rates helped Britons manage their payments. The CML last month forecast 48,000 repossessions, down from an earlier prediction of 75,000.
Repossessions may increase from the second half of 2010 because banks may become less patient with as many as 240,000 homeowners who have been late on mortgage payments and if interest rates increase, Rightmove said.
Record-low interest rates have made borrowing more affordable and helped more U.K. households meet debt payments, the Bank of England said today, citing a survey it conducted with NMG Financial Services Consulting from September to October.
UKCIG Property News from Rightmove, December 2009
Sunday, December 6, 2009
Rightmove tumbles on talk of Google entering UK property market - UKCIG Property
The mighty Google strikes again. A report that the company is planning to move into the UK property market has sent shares in Rightmove tumbling by more than 9%.
Google is said to be talking to UK estate agents about launching a property portal, which of course would cut across Rightmove's business. Hence a 51.5p decline in the latter's share price to 506p.
But Lorna Tilbian at the company's broker has issued a note playing down the threat from Google. She said:
Google has launched a property site in Australia, and could extend this to the UK in 2010. We believe that such a move would be an attempt to drive traffic through its site, but do not believe that it poses a material threat to Rightmove.
In our view, Rightmove has a firmly established position as one of the UK's leading websites and has a commanding share of more than 80% of the four leading property portals. The value added by Rightmove in generating leads is clearly proven, and the cost of the product is a small component of an estate agent's cost base and remains modest in comparison with newspaper advertising.
We note that Rightmove has proven effective at defending its market position against Globrix/NewsCorp, Prime Location/DMGT and Tesco. We believe that Rightmove's market position is secure, and have been encouraged by the group's recent initiatives to drive display advertising . We retain our buy recommendation and would view any near-term impact on the shares as a buying opportunity.
Plenty of buying opportunity at the moment, then, since the company is the biggest faller in the FTSE 250.
UKCIG Property News, December 2009
Google is said to be talking to UK estate agents about launching a property portal, which of course would cut across Rightmove's business. Hence a 51.5p decline in the latter's share price to 506p.
But Lorna Tilbian at the company's broker has issued a note playing down the threat from Google. She said:
Google has launched a property site in Australia, and could extend this to the UK in 2010. We believe that such a move would be an attempt to drive traffic through its site, but do not believe that it poses a material threat to Rightmove.
In our view, Rightmove has a firmly established position as one of the UK's leading websites and has a commanding share of more than 80% of the four leading property portals. The value added by Rightmove in generating leads is clearly proven, and the cost of the product is a small component of an estate agent's cost base and remains modest in comparison with newspaper advertising.
We note that Rightmove has proven effective at defending its market position against Globrix/NewsCorp, Prime Location/DMGT and Tesco. We believe that Rightmove's market position is secure, and have been encouraged by the group's recent initiatives to drive display advertising . We retain our buy recommendation and would view any near-term impact on the shares as a buying opportunity.
Plenty of buying opportunity at the moment, then, since the company is the biggest faller in the FTSE 250.
UKCIG Property News, December 2009
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